{"F": {"ts_code": "001210.SZ", "name": "金房能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210729", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.14, "pe_ttm": 45.5654, "pb": 4.34, "dv_ttm": 1.1422, "total_mv": 617779.3692, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.9, 25.9, 21.0, 23.0, 23.9, 25.7], "rev_series": [7.6, 7.9, 8.7, 9.7, 10.7, 12.0], "np_series": [1.3, 1.3, 1.0, 0.1, 0.5, 1.3], "roe_series": [26.5, 14.9, 7.7, 1.0, 3.9, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 23.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.2, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 4.34, "capex_dep": 2.14, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 52.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 11.8, "rev_yoy": 9.7, "np_yoy": 1.0, "np_vol": 142.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["传统能源-供热运营", 40.0], ["传统能源", 40.0], ["节能改造服务及合同能源管理服务", 5.0], ["节能改造服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.0, "ret_prev2_year": -15.0, "ret_ytd": 133.4, "ret_pivot": 352.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.6, "ret_60": 13.1, "ret_120": 73.7, "ret_250": 163.3, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 54.7, "pos_52w": 94.2}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 49, "hard": 48, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.6 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 163%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 29% / 13% / 74%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "金房能源:PE 比行业中位高 17.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.5个百分点。"]}}