{"F": {"ts_code": "001208.SZ", "name": "华菱线缆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210624", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.85, "pe_ttm": 91.2438, "pb": 3.2375, "dv_ttm": 0.4377, "total_mv": 947950.4925, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 18.4, 14.1, 12.8, 11.3, 11.1], "rev_series": [17.0, 25.4, 30.2, 34.7, 41.6, 45.1], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.1, 0.9, 1.1, 1.1], "roe_series": [11.4, 11.9, 7.7, 5.7, 6.9, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.3, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 3.24, "capex_dep": 3.31, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 57.1, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.3, "np_cagr3": 0.1, "rev_yoy": 21.1, "np_yoy": -9.9, "np_vol": 25.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["特种电缆", 21.0], ["电力电缆", 18.0], ["连接器及组件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 167.8, "ret_prev2_year": -1.8, "ret_ytd": -38.1, "ret_pivot": 89.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -4.8, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": 20.5, "mdd_250": -60.5, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 47.9}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 38, "hard": 15, "bondness": 27}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 91.2 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 3.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.2 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -5% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "华菱线缆:PE 比行业中位高 47.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}