{"F": {"ts_code": "001207.SZ", "name": "联科科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "炭黑", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210623", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.54, "pe_ttm": 18.012, "pb": 2.2016, "dv_ttm": 3.2441, "total_mv": 531703.7012, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 19.3, 11.4, 15.0, 19.2, 19.8], "rev_series": [10.0, 14.5, 18.4, 19.2, 22.7, 23.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.6, 1.1, 1.7, 2.7, 2.9], "roe_series": [24.0, 17.5, 8.4, 10.9, 15.0, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.2, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_yield": 7.7, "ocf_yield": 8.5, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -13.9, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 13.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.0, "fix_assets": 9.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.2, "capex_dep": 0.38, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 29.7, "debt_mv": 3.3, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": 38.0, "rev_yoy": 5.0, "np_yoy": 1.6, "np_vol": 33.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 11.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["炭黑", 56.0], ["二氧化硅", 42.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["硅酸钠", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": 19.2, "ret_ytd": -1.3, "ret_pivot": 110.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.6, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": -1.6, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 42, "hard": 43, "bondness": 51}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 56%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 8.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.2%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 2% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "联科科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}