{"F": {"ts_code": "001203.SZ", "name": "大中矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "铁矿石", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210510", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.3, "pe_ttm": 61.7918, "pb": 5.6013, "dv_ttm": 0.7544, "total_mv": 4032001.452, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.6, 54.5, 45.2, 53.5, 49.5, 46.4], "rev_series": [25.0, 48.9, 40.6, 40.0, 38.4, 40.9], "np_series": [5.9, 16.2, 9.8, 11.4, 7.5, 7.4], "roe_series": [30.3, 44.9, 17.4, 18.9, 12.1, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.0, "np_ttm": 6.5, "ocf_ttm": 12.7, "fcf_ttm": -9.3, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 49.5, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -11.4, "npm_median": 24.1, "roe_median": 17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.9, "fix_assets": 70.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.49, "capex_dep": 5.05, "interest_debt": 80.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 60.7, "debt_mv": 20.0, "payout": 49.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": -9.0, "rev_yoy": -9.9, "np_yoy": -20.6, "np_vol": 78.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 27.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": 124.0, "fwd_g2": 109.0, "peg": 0.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铁精粉", 67.0], ["硫酸", 12.0], ["球团", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 268.6, "ret_prev2_year": -14.6, "ret_ytd": -13.6, "ret_pivot": 282.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -35.7, "ret_120": -33.1, "ret_250": 120.5, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 70.0, "pos_52w": 49.5}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 61, "hard": 61, "bondness": 56}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 71 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -2.3%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 92%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(毛利率 49.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 5.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 120%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -36% / -33%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "大中矿业:PE 比行业中位高 31.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}