{"F": {"ts_code": "000998.SZ", "name": "隆平高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.39, "pe_ttm": 242.0865, "pb": 2.0873, "dv_ttm": 0.4473, "total_mv": 1379811.672, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.6, 34.3, 33.3, 39.8, 36.6, 39.3], "rev_series": [32.9, 35.0, 36.9, 92.2, 85.7, 84.8], "np_series": [1.2, 0.6, -8.8, 2.0, 1.1, 1.7], "roe_series": [2.0, 1.1, -16.6, 3.8, 2.2, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 80.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 36.6, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 38.8, "goodwill_ratio": 17.3, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 107.3, "debt_ebitda": 10.2, "debt_ratio": 59.1, "debt_mv": 77.7, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 32.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -21.1, "np_yoy": -66.4, "np_vol": 612.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 40.0, "fwd_pe2": 30.3, "fwd_g1": 505.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 1.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["水稻种子", 42.0], ["玉米种子", 30.0], ["农化、棉花、油菜及其他", 12.0], ["向日葵种子", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.0, "ret_prev2_year": -20.6, "ret_ytd": 0.8, "ret_pivot": 2.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.4, "ret_60": 16.1, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": -6.5, "mdd_250": -32.5, "vol_250": 29.6, "pos_52w": 85.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 25, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 242.1 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 40.0 倍,次年 30.3 倍,PEG 1.25。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.6%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 242.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 16% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "隆平高科:PE 比行业中位高 170.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点。"]}}