{"F": {"ts_code": "000995.SZ", "name": "皇台酒业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000807", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.46, "pe_ttm": 895.1194, "pb": 13.2376, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 203309.568, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [66.8, 59.0, 63.8, 61.2, 66.1, 67.1], "rev_series": [1.0, 0.9, 1.4, 1.5, 1.7, 1.7], "np_series": [0.3, -0.1, 0.1, -0.2, 0.3, 0.1], "roe_series": [29.8, -10.6, 5.7, -11.8, 20.3, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 63.8, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.24, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 68.7, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 7.6, "np_cagr3": 24.3, "rev_yoy": -16.0, "np_yoy": -225.0, "np_vol": 209.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["粮食白酒", 33.0], ["白酒", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.2, "ret_prev2_year": -5.2, "ret_ytd": -8.4, "ret_pivot": 8.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": 6.0, "ret_120": -26.0, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 49.2, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 25, "bondness": 18}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 895 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 63.8%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 895.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 6% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "皇台酒业:PE 比行业中位高 869.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.6个百分点。"]}}