{"F": {"ts_code": "000990.SZ", "name": "诚志股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "煤化工", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.47, "pe_ttm": 57.1172, "pb": 0.6109, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1100762.1275, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.8, 24.4, 11.3, 13.2, 15.9, 14.6], "rev_series": [97.3, 121.8, 117.2, 124.2, 110.7, 110.3], "np_series": [3.6, 10.1, 0.5, 1.8, 2.3, -0.8], "roe_series": [2.2, 5.9, 0.3, 1.0, 1.3, -0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 111.9, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 13.5, "fcf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 12.2, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.9, "fix_assets": 60.4, "goodwill_ratio": 24.2, "pb_calc": 0.61, "capex_dep": 1.46, "interest_debt": 60.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 30.9, "debt_mv": 55.2, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 1416.2, "np_vol": 149.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 8.8, "fwd_g1": 453.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["清洁能源产品", 39.0], ["清洁能源(产品)", 39.0], ["化工新材料产品", 8.0], ["化工", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.9, "ret_prev2_year": -5.1, "ret_ytd": 14.4, "ret_pivot": 42.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": 11.7, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 35, "hard": 35, "bondness": 42}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 1416%,PE TTM 57.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 10.3 倍,PEG 0.57。", "自由现金流 5.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 12.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.46 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 2% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "诚志股份:PE 比行业中位高 21.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.5个百分点。"]}}