{"F": {"ts_code": "000981.SZ", "name": "山子高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.66, "pe_ttm": 31.6126, "pb": 9.2063, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2659327.2594, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 12.8, 7.7, 14.4, 16.4, 15.4], "rev_series": [79.6, 39.8, 37.4, 53.4, 49.7, 32.7], "np_series": [-10.9, -26.1, -9.7, -20.6, -17.4, 10.3], "roe_series": [-18.3, -61.5, -25.0, -54.8, -85.5, 51.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.1, "np_ttm": 8.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 14.4, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -10.4, "npm_median": -36.3, "roe_median": -54.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.1, "fix_assets": 16.2, "goodwill_ratio": 6.9, "pb_calc": 9.21, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 15.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 61.3, "debt_mv": 5.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.9, "np_yoy": -85.7, "np_vol": 111.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["汽车安全气囊气体发生器", 33.0], ["汽车动力总成", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 108.0, "ret_prev2_year": 25.8, "ret_ytd": -36.1, "ret_pivot": 153.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.7, "ret_60": -15.3, "ret_120": -36.8, "ret_250": 25.5, "mdd_250": -57.3, "vol_250": 66.4, "pos_52w": 46.9}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 39, "hard": 35, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 8.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 32 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -15% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "山子高科:PE 比行业中位高 1.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}