{"F": {"ts_code": "000978.SZ", "name": "桂林旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "自然景区", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.62, "pe_ttm": 338.2497, "pb": 2.8729, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 309902.06, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-12.2, -8.3, -75.0, 29.9, 27.5, 31.4], "rev_series": [2.6, 2.4, 1.3, 4.7, 4.3, 4.4], "np_series": [-2.7, -2.1, -2.9, 0.1, -2.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [-18.3, -17.6, -24.5, 0.9, -17.4, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 40.8, "gm_stab": -0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -62.8, "npm_median": -47.2, "roe_median": -17.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.9, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 2.87, "capex_dep": 0.85, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 6.8, "debt_ratio": 46.7, "debt_mv": 25.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 50.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.2, "np_yoy": -23.4, "np_vol": 753.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["景区旅游", 17.0], ["景区", 17.0], ["漓江游船客运", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.9, "ret_prev2_year": -20.1, "ret_ytd": -8.6, "ret_pivot": 18.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.1, "ret_60": 13.0, "ret_120": -8.4, "ret_250": 0.2, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 37.3, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 18, "hard": 72, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 338 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 -48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 -48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -62.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 0.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 338.2 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 13% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "桂林旅游:PE 比行业中位高 271.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}