{"F": {"ts_code": "000975.SZ", "name": "山金国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.25, "pe_ttm": 19.1907, "pb": 4.5714, "dv_ttm": 1.8301, "total_mv": 7277884.425, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 25.1, 24.8, 32.0, 29.9, 31.8], "rev_series": [79.1, 90.4, 83.8, 81.1, 135.9, 171.0], "np_series": [12.4, 12.7, 11.2, 14.2, 21.7, 29.7], "roe_series": [13.1, 12.5, 10.5, 12.7, 17.7, 21.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 175.1, "np_ttm": 37.9, "ocf_ttm": 51.3, "fcf_ttm": 31.7, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 29.9, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 17.9, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 20.0, "fix_assets": 49.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 4.57, "capex_dep": 5.19, "interest_debt": 21.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 27.3, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 46.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.8, "np_cagr3": 38.3, "rev_yoy": 4.5, "np_yoy": 51.4, "np_vol": 23.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["矿产金", 38.0], ["白银贸易", 22.0], ["铜贸易", 17.0], ["铅锌精矿含银", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.2, "ret_prev2_year": 4.7, "ret_ytd": 10.1, "ret_pivot": 62.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": 27.9, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": 42.4, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 56.6, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 70, "hard": 32, "bondness": 28}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 51%,PE TTM 19.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.1 倍,PEG 0.35。", "自由现金流 31.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 40%(19 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 29.9%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 5.19 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 28% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "山金国际:PE 比行业中位低 11.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}