{"F": {"ts_code": "000973.SZ", "name": "佛塑科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.19, "pe_ttm": 31.209, "pb": 3.1618, "dv_ttm": 0.0984, "total_mv": 2996590.6592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.1, 23.6, 21.7, 23.0, 22.9, 20.1], "rev_series": [23.0, 24.6, 26.4, 22.1, 22.3, 22.3], "np_series": [0.7, 1.2, 1.4, 2.1, 1.2, 1.1], "roe_series": [3.0, 5.0, 5.3, 7.8, 4.2, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.3, "np_ttm": 9.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.7, "fix_assets": 110.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.16, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 85.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 51.1, "debt_mv": 28.6, "payout": 28.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": -7.5, "rev_yoy": 259.6, "np_yoy": 1608.1, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 18.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.8, "fwd_g1": 66.0, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 0.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["锂电池隔膜", 31.0], ["双向拉伸薄膜", 5.0], ["渗析防护材料", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 149.2, "ret_prev2_year": 23.4, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": 223.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -12.9, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": 73.2, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 65.2, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 50, "hard": 84, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.2 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 53%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.2 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 73%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -13% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "佛塑科技:PE 比行业中位低 9.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.8个百分点。"]}}