{"F": {"ts_code": "000972.SZ", "name": "中基健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "果蔬加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 294630.3352, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-58.8, 5.7, 26.3, 25.3, 5.0, -15.7], "rev_series": [0.2, 1.7, 5.9, 5.8, 3.1, 4.9], "np_series": [-2.7, -1.1, 0.3, 1.1, -2.3, -0.5], "roe_series": [-86.1, -87.1, 31.7, 72.4, -262.0, null], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 14.4, "ocf_yield": 16.1, "gm_median": 5.7, "gm_std": 15.5, "gm_stab": -1.72, "gm_chg_2022": 85.1, "npm_median": -11.4, "roe_median": -27.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.7, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 13.9, "debt_ratio": 104.1, "debt_mv": 18.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.6, "np_yoy": 11.8, "np_vol": 204.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["大桶番茄酱", 31.0], ["大包装番茄酱", 31.0], ["种子", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.0, "ret_prev2_year": -21.1, "ret_ytd": -2.6, "ret_pivot": 57.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 9.5, "ret_120": 3.8, "ret_250": -2.1, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 40.8, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 14, "hard": 65, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 85.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 13.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.7%,稳定度 -172%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.4%(经营现金流/市值 16.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.7%,稳定度 -172%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 85.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 10% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "中基健康:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}