{"F": {"ts_code": "000968.SZ", "name": "蓝焰控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油气开采Ⅱ", "sw3": "油气开采Ⅲ", "ind": "油气开采Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.29, "pe_ttm": 23.6114, "pb": 1.1026, "dv_ttm": 0.6859, "total_mv": 705309.4683, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.4, 35.5, 37.9, 35.9, 35.3, 31.4], "rev_series": [14.4, 19.8, 25.0, 23.8, 22.7, 21.1], "np_series": [1.2, 3.1, 5.6, 5.4, 4.3, 3.3], "roe_series": [2.9, 6.7, 11.4, 10.0, 7.5, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.7, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 10.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 14.8, "gm_median": 35.5, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 10.5, "npm_median": 19.2, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 73.3, "fix_assets": 76.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.1, "capex_dep": 1.08, "interest_debt": 29.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 41.9, "payout": 14.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.5, "np_cagr3": -15.9, "rev_yoy": -12.3, "np_yoy": -15.5, "np_vol": 66.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["煤层气销售", 48.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.2, "ret_prev2_year": -4.2, "ret_ytd": 11.1, "ret_pivot": 31.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": 0.0, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 52.3, "pos_52w": 63.3}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 77 亿,占总资产 73%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:油气开采Ⅲ 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 5.7%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 79%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 73%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 14.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 73%,资本开支/折旧 1.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.6 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / -22%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油气开采Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 30.0 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 50.5% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 29%。", "蓝焰控股:PE 比行业中位低 6.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 67.2个百分点。"]}}