{"F": {"ts_code": "000965.SZ", "name": "天保基建", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.37, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6814, "dv_ttm": 0.2967, "total_mv": 374013.0133, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.8, 51.3, 31.1, 15.3, 21.5, 12.9], "rev_series": [8.2, 25.4, 24.6, 30.6, 25.3, 28.0], "np_series": [1.0, 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [1.8, 0.9, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.1, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -5.2, "ocf_yield": -4.8, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": 13.9, "gm_stab": 0.35, "gm_chg_2022": -28.6, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.7, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.68, "capex_dep": 0.36, "interest_debt": 43.5, "debt_ebitda": 12.0, "debt_ratio": 53.2, "debt_mv": 116.2, "payout": 65.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 268.1, "np_yoy": -54.4, "np_vol": 56.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["房地产销售", 32.0], ["房地产", 32.0], ["物业管理", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.2, "ret_prev2_year": -3.6, "ret_ytd": -13.8, "ret_pivot": 15.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.0, "ret_60": 3.1, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -28.0, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 27, "hard": 4, "bondness": 55}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 44 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.2%(经营现金流/市值 -4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.5%,稳定度 35%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -28.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.36 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "天保基建:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}