{"F": {"ts_code": "000962.SZ", "name": "东方钽业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.42, "pe_ttm": 115.0085, "pb": 6.7426, "dv_ttm": 0.309, "total_mv": 2711814.6984, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.2, 22.5, 16.3, 17.8, 18.3, 18.4], "rev_series": [6.8, 7.9, 9.9, 11.1, 12.8, 15.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.9, 1.7, 1.9, 2.1, 2.6], "roe_series": [4.1, 7.0, 12.2, 9.6, 8.5, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.9, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": -8.5, "fcf_ttm": -14.0, "fcf_yield": -5.2, "ocf_yield": -3.1, "gm_median": 18.3, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 16.9, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 22.0, "fix_assets": 12.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.74, "capex_dep": 8.57, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 27.6, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 31.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": 14.8, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": -15.5, "np_vol": 40.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 66.1, "fwd_pe2": 47.9, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": 38.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钽铌及其合金制品", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 144.8, "ret_prev2_year": 11.3, "ret_ytd": 56.1, "ret_pivot": 416.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.8, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": 5.8, "ret_250": 146.2, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 76.5, "pos_52w": 54.8}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 70, "hard": 35, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 115.0 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 18.3%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 8.57 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 146%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -11% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "东方钽业:PE 比行业中位高 78.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}