{"F": {"ts_code": "000960.SZ", "name": "锡业股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.42, "pe_ttm": 22.8371, "pb": 2.5615, "dv_ttm": 1.0772, "total_mv": 5499033.744, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.7, 12.0, 9.6, 9.2, 9.6, 11.4], "rev_series": [448.0, 538.4, 520.0, 423.6, 419.7, 435.3], "np_series": [6.9, 28.2, 13.5, 14.1, 14.4, 19.7], "roe_series": [5.6, 20.0, 8.4, 8.2, 7.5, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 540.1, "np_ttm": 24.1, "ocf_ttm": 20.5, "fcf_ttm": 13.3, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 9.6, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 36.5, "fix_assets": 154.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.45, "capex_dep": 0.63, "interest_debt": 131.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 43.9, "debt_mv": 23.9, "payout": 31.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": 13.5, "rev_yoy": 49.7, "np_yoy": 41.6, "np_vol": 127.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 55.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锡锭", 37.0], ["铜产品", 14.0], ["其他产品", 10.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 105.7, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": 21.4, "ret_pivot": 164.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.2, "ret_60": -4.1, "ret_120": -8.8, "ret_250": 65.9, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 70.0, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 70, "hard": 58, "bondness": 44}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 155 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:其他小金属 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.4%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 78%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 66%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -4% / -9%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "锡业股份:PE 比行业中位低 14.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点。"]}}