{"F": {"ts_code": "000959.SZ", "name": "首钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.72, "pe_ttm": 32.5916, "pb": 0.5733, "dv_ttm": 1.0753, "total_mv": 2884847.8728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 11.5, 6.0, 4.7, 4.1, 5.0], "rev_series": [799.5, 1340.3, 1181.4, 1137.6, 1083.1, 1029.2], "np_series": [17.9, 70.1, 11.2, 6.6, 4.7, 10.0], "roe_series": [6.4, 19.8, 2.5, 1.4, 1.0, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1013.2, "np_ttm": 8.9, "ocf_ttm": 65.9, "fcf_ttm": 61.3, "fcf_yield": 21.3, "ocf_yield": 22.8, "gm_median": 5.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.46, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.9, "fix_assets": 827.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.57, "capex_dep": 0.06, "interest_debt": 314.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 55.3, "debt_mv": 108.9, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.5, "np_cagr3": -4.0, "rev_yoy": -3.2, "np_yoy": -16.7, "np_vol": 137.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 24.2, "fwd_pe2": 18.6, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["冷轧", 28.0], ["热轧", 20.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.7, "ret_prev2_year": -11.3, "ret_ytd": -23.5, "ret_pivot": 42.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 18.1, "ret_120": -29.8, "ret_250": -12.7, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 36.5, "pos_52w": 64.7}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 24, "hard": 100, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 67%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 67%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.0%,稳定度 46%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 21.3%(经营现金流/市值 22.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.0%,稳定度 46%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 0.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.6 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 18% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "首钢股份:PE 比行业中位高 8.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点。"]}}