{"F": {"ts_code": "000958.SZ", "name": "电投产融", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "核力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.25, "pe_ttm": 31.1621, "pb": 1.8904, "dv_ttm": 0.6158, "total_mv": 9616175.5725, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.0, 14.9, 27.9, 27.2, 27.2, 31.2], "rev_series": [103.0, 65.7, 51.0, 51.1, 46.6, 114.3], "np_series": [12.7, 13.0, 10.0, 12.7, 10.4, 32.9], "roe_series": [8.0, 7.6, 5.5, 6.7, 5.3, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 140.0, "np_ttm": 46.0, "ocf_ttm": 47.8, "fcf_ttm": -131.3, "fcf_yield": -13.7, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 15.9, "npm_median": 30.5, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.5, "fix_assets": 989.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 4.85, "interest_debt": 754.5, "debt_ebitda": 9.6, "debt_ratio": 58.9, "debt_mv": 78.5, "payout": 35.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 30.9, "np_cagr3": 48.8, "rev_yoy": -16.0, "np_yoy": -10.5, "np_vol": 17.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["核电", 24.0], ["热力", 6.0], ["热", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.9, "ret_prev2_year": 63.6, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 63.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -10.7, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -24.4, "mdd_250": -28.5, "vol_250": 29.0, "pos_52w": 71.9}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 52, "hard": 100, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.2 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%、固定资产占比 66%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 4.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.2 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -11% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "电投产融:PE 比行业中位高 3.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}