{"F": {"ts_code": "000957.SZ", "name": "中通客车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载客车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20000113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.39, "pe_ttm": 13.6291, "pb": 1.8236, "dv_ttm": 0.9497, "total_mv": 616027.1521, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 11.9, 17.5, 23.9, 18.6, 17.6], "rev_series": [44.1, 45.9, 52.8, 42.4, 57.3, 73.3], "np_series": [0.2, -2.2, 1.0, 0.7, 2.5, 3.6], "roe_series": [0.9, -8.2, 3.8, 2.6, 8.8, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 74.0, "np_ttm": 4.5, "ocf_ttm": 25.9, "fcf_ttm": 25.9, "fcf_yield": 42.0, "ocf_yield": 42.1, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 0.04, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 66.6, "debt_mv": 3.2, "payout": 19.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": 54.1, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": 48.5, "np_vol": 465.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 13.0, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["客车", 47.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0], ["其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": 23.4, "ret_ytd": -8.6, "ret_pivot": 17.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -6.9, "ret_250": -8.0, "mdd_250": -28.7, "vol_250": 29.4, "pos_52w": 82.4}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 46, "hard": 14, "bondness": 22}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 48%,PE TTM 13.6 倍 但前瞻 PE 13.0 倍,PEG 0.43。", "自由现金流 25.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 30%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 42.0%(经营现金流/市值 42.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / -7%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "中通客车:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}