{"F": {"ts_code": "000953.SZ", "name": "中哲精化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "原料药", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.09, "pe_ttm": 640.8849, "pb": 14.4227, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 222968.4198, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 23.2, 7.9, 12.0, 15.4, 17.2], "rev_series": [2.4, 1.6, 1.6, 1.9, 2.1, 1.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.1, -1.0, -0.1, 0.8, 0.1], "roe_series": [32.5, 5.8, -78.7, -16.0, 74.9, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -29.8, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.7, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.42, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 34.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.2, "np_yoy": -79.4, "np_vol": 603.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["医药中间体", 20.0], ["尿素产品", 18.0], ["尿素", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.2, "ret_prev2_year": 2.2, "ret_ytd": -15.7, "ret_pivot": 62.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.5, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -17.3, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -38.7, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 78, "bondness": 19}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 49%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -29.8 个百分点;资产负债率 34%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -29.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 640.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 4% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "中哲精化:PE 比行业中位高 603.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 37.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点。"]}}