{"F": {"ts_code": "000951.SZ", "name": "中国重汽", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载货车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.96, "pe_ttm": 13.0318, "pb": 1.551, "dv_ttm": 3.7659, "total_mv": 2567113.02, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.5, 7.4, 6.2, 7.8, 8.7, 7.8], "rev_series": [599.4, 561.0, 288.2, 420.7, 449.3, 577.4], "np_series": [18.8, 10.4, 2.1, 10.8, 14.8, 16.7], "roe_series": [24.4, 9.3, 1.5, 7.6, 9.8, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 699.9, "np_ttm": 19.7, "ocf_ttm": 29.9, "fcf_ttm": 27.8, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 11.6, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.2, "fix_assets": 40.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 68.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 54.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.1, "np_cagr3": 98.3, "rev_yoy": 46.8, "np_yoy": 45.5, "np_vol": 174.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.6, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["整车销售", 36.0], ["配件销售", 14.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.1, "ret_prev2_year": 38.4, "ret_ytd": 34.0, "ret_pivot": 68.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": 0.2, "ret_250": 21.2, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 84.7}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 40, "hard": 12, "bondness": 45}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 46%,PE TTM 13.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.7 倍,PEG 0.67。", "自由现金流 27.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 19%(15 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 11.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / 0%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "中国重汽:PE 比行业中位低 0.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点。"]}}