{"F": {"ts_code": "000949.SZ", "name": "新乡化纤", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "粘胶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.79, "pe_ttm": 26.9032, "pb": 1.8428, "dv_ttm": 0.2567, "total_mv": 1290725.0221, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.9, 33.1, 4.4, 7.7, 11.1, 9.9], "rev_series": [44.8, 87.4, 72.7, 73.8, 73.7, 78.6], "np_series": [0.8, 13.7, -4.3, -0.4, 2.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [2.2, 27.2, -7.4, -0.8, 4.1, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 87.0, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 9.6, "gm_median": 9.9, "gm_std": 10.2, "gm_stab": -0.03, "gm_chg_2022": -13.4, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.3, "fix_assets": 68.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 49.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 38.1, "payout": 17.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 2.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 22.5, "np_yoy": 449.0, "np_vol": 618.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 19.7, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["氨纶纤维", 21.0], ["氨纶", 21.0], ["生物质纤维素长丝", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.3, "ret_prev2_year": 25.5, "ret_ytd": 42.2, "ret_pivot": 157.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.8, "ret_60": 22.3, "ret_120": 4.0, "ret_250": 91.9, "mdd_250": -38.3, "vol_250": 56.9, "pos_52w": 94.2}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 9, "hard": 84, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%,稳定度 -3%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%,稳定度 -3%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 92%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 22% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "新乡化纤:PE 比行业中位低 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点。"]}}