{"F": {"ts_code": "000948.SZ", "name": "南天信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991014", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.49, "pe_ttm": 103.2015, "pb": 2.0662, "dv_ttm": 0.207, "total_mv": 564948.8712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 16.3, 12.9, 12.9, 12.9, 12.1], "rev_series": [42.4, 55.9, 85.7, 91.4, 94.5, 100.0], "np_series": [0.9, 0.9, 1.4, 1.6, 1.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.0, 3.8, 5.8, 6.2, 4.4, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.3, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.3, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.07, "capex_dep": 2.71, "interest_debt": 24.1, "debt_ebitda": 11.7, "debt_ratio": 68.6, "debt_mv": 42.7, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.3, "np_cagr3": -35.6, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": 362.3, "np_vol": 40.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["IT产品销售及产业互联网", 27.0], ["IT产业互联网", 27.0], ["集成解决方案", 16.0], ["系统集成解决方案", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.9, "ret_prev2_year": 12.0, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": -24.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.1, "ret_60": 17.2, "ret_120": -10.2, "ret_250": -30.2, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 36.1, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 41, "hard": 4, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 103.2 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.71 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 103.2 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 17% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "南天信息:PE 比行业中位高 20.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 35.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}