{"F": {"ts_code": "000938.SZ", "name": "紫光股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19991104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.27, "pe_ttm": 35.8784, "pb": 5.6449, "dv_ttm": 0.1843, "total_mv": 10087501.8073, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.8, 19.5, 20.6, 19.6, 17.4, 14.6], "rev_series": [597.0, 676.4, 740.6, 773.1, 790.2, 967.5], "np_series": [18.9, 21.5, 21.6, 21.0, 15.7, 16.9], "roe_series": [6.5, 7.2, 7.0, 6.4, 6.7, 12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1128.4, "np_ttm": 28.1, "ocf_ttm": 20.9, "fcf_ttm": 14.4, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.6, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 12.8, "pb_calc": 5.64, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 291.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.7, "debt_ratio": 81.8, "debt_mv": 28.9, "payout": 13.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": 33.9, "np_yoy": 108.2, "np_vol": 14.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 32.2, "fwd_pe2": 24.3, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["ICT基础设施及服务", 29.0], ["ICT基础设施与服务", 29.0], ["IT产品分销与供应链服务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.4, "ret_prev2_year": 45.2, "ret_ytd": 43.8, "ret_pivot": 88.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": 39.5, "ret_120": 37.1, "ret_250": 23.5, "mdd_250": -26.3, "vol_250": 56.0, "pos_52w": 78.6}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 49, "hard": 3, "bondness": 32}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 108%,PE TTM 35.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 32.2 倍,PEG 1.01。", "自由现金流 14.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 32%(17 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 40% / 37%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "紫光股份:PE 比行业中位低 48.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点。"]}}