{"F": {"ts_code": "000937.SZ", "name": "冀中能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990909", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.85, "pe_ttm": 35.6703, "pb": 0.984, "dv_ttm": 1.8744, "total_mv": 1885147.2275, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 27.1, 32.0, 36.8, 33.3, 27.1], "rev_series": [206.4, 314.2, 360.4, 243.3, 187.3, 151.4], "np_series": [7.9, 27.4, 44.6, 49.4, 12.1, 6.1], "roe_series": [3.9, 13.6, 21.3, 22.7, 5.6, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 152.6, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 23.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 12.2, "gm_median": 32.0, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 8.3, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 13.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 42.9, "fix_assets": 233.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.98, "capex_dep": 1.36, "interest_debt": 225.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.8, "debt_ratio": 60.0, "debt_mv": 119.3, "payout": 57.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -25.1, "np_cagr3": -48.4, "rev_yoy": 1.6, "np_yoy": -24.2, "np_vol": 115.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.2, "fwd_pe2": 16.7, "fwd_g1": 77.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["煤炭", 40.0], ["化工", 6.0], ["建材", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": -0.4, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": 12.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -9.0, "ret_250": -11.5, "mdd_250": -31.8, "vol_250": 26.8, "pos_52w": 85.1}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 70, "hard": 69, "bondness": 66}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 234 亿,占总资产 43%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:焦煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.0%,股息率 1.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 43%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 12.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.7 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 1% / -9%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "冀中能源:PE 比行业中位高 10.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}