{"F": {"ts_code": "000933.SZ", "name": "神火股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.36, "pe_ttm": 8.9408, "pb": 2.2231, "dv_ttm": 2.9039, "total_mv": 6153276.0384, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.5, 35.7, 31.3, 26.4, 21.2, 23.4], "rev_series": [188.1, 344.5, 427.0, 376.3, 383.7, 412.4], "np_series": [3.6, 32.3, 75.7, 59.1, 43.1, 40.1], "roe_series": [4.9, 39.6, 59.6, 32.9, 20.8, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 456.0, "np_ttm": 68.8, "ocf_ttm": 115.1, "fcf_ttm": 107.7, "fcf_yield": 17.5, "ocf_yield": 18.7, "gm_median": 26.4, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 9.8, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 32.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 40.4, "fix_assets": 225.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 0.45, "interest_debt": 116.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 42.3, "debt_mv": 19.0, "payout": 41.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -19.1, "rev_yoy": 21.4, "np_yoy": 151.1, "np_vol": 318.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 44.0, "earn_yield": 11.2, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 7.0, "fwd_pe2": 6.8, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 3.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电解铝", 62.0], ["煤炭", 11.0], ["铝箔", 7.0], ["铝箔坯料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.0, "ret_prev2_year": 8.3, "ret_ytd": 2.6, "ret_pivot": 106.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": 2.2, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": 45.8, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 48.9, "pos_52w": 73.5}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 70, "hard": 65, "bondness": 54}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 226 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 17.5%,股息率 2.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 44%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 17.5%(经营现金流/市值 18.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.4%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.9 倍 粗算,约 44%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 46%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / -24%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "神火股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.9个百分点。"]}}