{"F": {"ts_code": "000932.SZ", "name": "华菱钢铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.64, "pe_ttm": 22.9328, "pb": 0.4563, "dv_ttm": 4.3956, "total_mv": 2494349.7488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 12.9, 10.3, 9.4, 6.8, 9.7], "rev_series": [1162.8, 1711.8, 1681.0, 1639.0, 1441.1, 1211.4], "np_series": [64.0, 96.8, 63.8, 50.8, 20.3, 26.1], "roe_series": [20.7, 24.5, 13.4, 9.8, 3.8, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1192.6, "np_ttm": 10.9, "ocf_ttm": 48.9, "fcf_ttm": -8.1, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 19.6, "gm_median": 9.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.5, "fix_assets": 682.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.46, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 213.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 85.5, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": -25.8, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": -87.1, "np_vol": 41.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 8.6, "fwd_pe2": 7.0, "fwd_g1": 166.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["板材", 35.0], ["其他收入", 21.0], ["其他业务及产品", 21.0], ["长材", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.3, "ret_prev2_year": -15.9, "ret_ytd": -33.3, "ret_pivot": 13.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 1.1, "ret_120": -39.4, "ret_250": -34.9, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 54.9}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 37, "hard": 68, "bondness": 67}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 19.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.9 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "华菱钢铁:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.7个百分点。"]}}