{"F": {"ts_code": "000930.SZ", "name": "中粮科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.15, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9271, "dv_ttm": 0.5825, "total_mv": 956067.836, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.5, 11.2, 11.3, 5.5, 7.8, 8.4], "rev_series": [199.1, 234.7, 199.2, 203.8, 200.5, 175.1], "np_series": [5.9, 11.3, 10.6, -6.0, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.9, 10.4, 9.0, -5.3, 0.2, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 168.9, "np_ttm": -2.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -7.9, "fcf_yield": -8.2, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.3, "fix_assets": 87.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 54.1, "debt_ebitda": 17.6, "debt_ratio": 40.7, "debt_mv": 56.6, "payout": 144.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.2, "np_cagr3": -66.9, "rev_yoy": -7.0, "np_yoy": -257.9, "np_vol": 95.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 64.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["酒精及其副产品", 17.0], ["燃料乙醇类及其副产品", 17.0], ["糖类", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.0, "ret_prev2_year": -16.5, "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_pivot": 10.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -35.1, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 32.0, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 77, "bondness": 73}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 17.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 74%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 7% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "中粮科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.8个百分点。"]}}