{"F": {"ts_code": "000929.SZ", "name": "兰州黄河", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990623", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.65, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.2782, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 179264.19, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.3, 18.6, 15.8, 15.2, 7.9, 22.4], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.1, 2.7, 2.4, 2.1, 3.7], "np_series": [-0.3, 0.2, -0.3, -0.5, -1.0, -0.9], "roe_series": [-4.5, 2.9, -4.5, -7.6, -18.6, -21.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.5, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -22.5, "ocf_yield": -18.4, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": -23.0, "roe_median": -7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.8, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.28, "capex_dep": 6.11, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 36.7, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 81.7, "np_yoy": -116.8, "np_vol": 137.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["啤酒", 29.0], ["果汁", 13.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.4, "ret_prev2_year": -28.9, "ret_ytd": 9.5, "ret_pivot": 65.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 3.5, "ret_120": -7.7, "ret_250": 9.8, "mdd_250": -35.5, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 83.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 30, "bondness": 12}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -18.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -22.5%(经营现金流/市值 -18.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 6.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 4% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "兰州黄河:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}