{"F": {"ts_code": "000923.SZ", "name": "河钢资源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "铁矿石", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990714", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.31, "pe_ttm": 60.4737, "pb": 1.0951, "dv_ttm": 3.6787, "total_mv": 1064600.999, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.8, 73.0, 64.7, 63.0, 61.6, 60.2], "rev_series": [59.4, 65.7, 50.5, 58.7, 55.8, 58.4], "np_series": [9.7, 13.0, 6.7, 9.1, 5.7, 5.7], "roe_series": [13.3, 16.8, 7.8, 10.1, 6.0, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.4, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.5, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 63.0, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 19.1, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.4, "fix_assets": 95.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.1, "capex_dep": 3.17, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 25.1, "debt_mv": 6.0, "payout": 57.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": -5.2, "rev_yoy": -24.8, "np_yoy": -149.2, "np_vol": 35.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 543.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": -89.0, "fwd_g2": 3733.0, "peg": 0.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["磁铁矿", 35.0], ["铜", 10.0], ["蛭石", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.2, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 44.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.8, "ret_60": 22.4, "ret_120": -18.9, "ret_250": 14.5, "mdd_250": -52.6, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 68, "hard": 89, "bondness": 62}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 96 亿,占总资产 55%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 63.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -4.2%,股息率 3.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 92%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 55%)和定价权(毛利率 63.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 63.0%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 3.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 22% / -19%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "河钢资源:PE 比行业中位高 29.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点。"]}}