{"F": {"ts_code": "000917.SZ", "name": "电广传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990325", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.24, "pe_ttm": 248.1885, "pb": 0.9973, "dv_ttm": 0.4144, "total_mv": 1026310.8336, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.4, 25.1, 30.8, 30.8, 29.6, 27.8], "rev_series": [59.4, 43.4, 37.3, 39.2, 39.0, 43.4], "np_series": [-14.7, 3.3, 2.1, 1.8, 1.0, 1.4], "roe_series": [-13.8, 3.2, 2.0, 1.7, 0.9, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 45.9, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 10.4, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.5, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 34.8, "debt_ebitda": 9.9, "debt_ratio": 33.6, "debt_mv": 33.9, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": -12.9, "rev_yoy": 12.7, "np_yoy": -236.7, "np_vol": 62.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["广告运营", 68.0], ["投资管理收入", 14.0], ["游戏收入", 12.0], ["旅游业", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.0, "ret_prev2_year": 29.8, "ret_ytd": -29.4, "ret_pivot": 49.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": 9.4, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 54.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 10, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 248.2 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 248.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 9% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "电广传媒:PE 比行业中位高 210.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.0个百分点。"]}}