{"F": {"ts_code": "000913.SZ", "name": "钱江摩托", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "摩托车", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990514", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.2, "pe_ttm": 7.2874, "pb": 1.1346, "dv_ttm": 9.823, "total_mv": 589580.32, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.1, 26.2, 27.2, 27.5, 26.3, 25.2], "rev_series": [36.1, 43.1, 56.5, 51.0, 60.3, 54.1], "np_series": [2.4, 2.4, 4.2, 4.6, 6.8, 9.8], "roe_series": [8.8, 8.3, 12.9, 11.7, 14.7, 19.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.7, "np_ttm": 8.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -11.6, "ocf_yield": -2.1, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 12.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.1, "fix_assets": 23.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 4.12, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 58.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": 32.8, "rev_yoy": -11.3, "np_yoy": -62.4, "np_vol": 27.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 31.0, "earn_yield": 13.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 21.3, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": -66.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["摩托车整车", 31.0], ["摩托车、全地形车及电动自行车整车", 31.0], ["零配件及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.2, "ret_prev2_year": 62.0, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": -23.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": 0.7, "ret_120": -26.8, "ret_250": -30.1, "mdd_250": -43.0, "vol_250": 33.7, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 17, "pricing": 54, "hard": 37, "bondness": 71}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 59%、股息率 9.8%、营收 3 年复合 -1.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.6%(经营现金流/市值 -2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 4.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.3 倍 粗算,约 31%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "钱江摩托:PE 比行业中位低 21.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}