{"F": {"ts_code": "000912.SZ", "name": "泸天化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "氮肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990603", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.21, "pe_ttm": 1137.9175, "pb": 1.0382, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 660128.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.0, 19.4, 17.7, 14.6, 9.8, 8.7], "rev_series": [56.2, 67.5, 75.3, 64.2, 50.7, 45.0], "np_series": [3.8, 4.5, 3.7, 1.5, 0.8, 0.3], "roe_series": [7.3, 7.9, 6.1, 2.4, 1.2, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": 4.8, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.9, "fix_assets": 48.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 28.6, "debt_mv": 5.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -15.8, "np_cagr3": -55.8, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": -75.8, "np_vol": 40.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化肥产品", 59.0], ["化工产品", 20.0], ["化工", 20.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.6, "ret_ytd": 1.4, "ret_pivot": 7.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.3, "ret_60": 13.5, "ret_120": -30.1, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": -50.4, "vol_250": 44.3, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 86, "bondness": 24}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.6%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1137.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 14% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "泸天化:PE 比行业中位高 1117.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}