{"F": {"ts_code": "000911.SZ", "name": "*ST广糖", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 232986.1236, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 13.4, 10.2, 12.8, 11.9, 9.7], "rev_series": [35.5, 32.3, 28.4, 33.4, 32.5, 24.7], "np_series": [0.4, -0.5, -4.6, 0.1, 0.3, -1.2], "roe_series": [45.6, -17.3, -170.2, 17.2, 16.4, null], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.0, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_ttm": -6.9, "fcf_yield": -29.7, "ocf_yield": -26.1, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": -2.0, "roe_median": -0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 12.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.6, "interest_debt": 31.1, "debt_ebitda": 24.4, "debt_ratio": 100.2, "debt_mv": 133.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.4, "np_yoy": -275.7, "np_vol": 615.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["自产糖", 65.0], ["物流仓储", 10.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0], ["其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.5, "ret_prev2_year": -11.7, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": -13.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.9, "ret_60": 21.0, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 69.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 48, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 24.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -29.7%(经营现金流/市值 -26.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 21% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "*ST广糖:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}