{"F": {"ts_code": "000906.SZ", "name": "浙商中拓", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.1, "pe_ttm": 16.1546, "pb": 0.8833, "dv_ttm": 2.1311, "total_mv": 432894.552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.0, 1.6, 1.4, 1.6, 1.1, 0.9], "rev_series": [1089.8, 1782.7, 1936.0, 2030.6, 2019.0, 2355.0], "np_series": [5.6, 8.2, 10.0, 6.8, 3.7, 2.2], "roe_series": [17.6, 21.5, 20.5, 12.2, 6.4, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2542.4, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": -12.4, "fcf_ttm": -16.0, "fcf_yield": -36.8, "ocf_yield": -28.8, "gm_median": 1.4, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.9, "fix_assets": 16.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.55, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 167.5, "debt_ebitda": 11.4, "debt_ratio": 80.8, "debt_mv": 386.8, "payout": 44.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": -39.4, "rev_yoy": 17.5, "np_yoy": 21.9, "np_vol": 37.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 8.5, "fwd_pe2": 6.0, "fwd_g1": 91.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["能源化工", 15.0], ["大宗-能源化工供应链", 15.0], ["黑色金属材料", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.7, "ret_prev2_year": -5.4, "ret_ytd": 5.4, "ret_pivot": 48.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.5, "ret_60": 11.3, "ret_120": 2.3, "ret_250": -5.1, "mdd_250": -24.9, "vol_250": 26.8, "pos_52w": 90.9}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 36, "hard": 5, "bondness": 57}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.2 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 1.4%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 11.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 1.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -36.8%(经营现金流/市值 -28.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.2 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 11% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "浙商中拓:PE 比行业中位低 5.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.7个百分点。"]}}