{"F": {"ts_code": "000905.SZ", "name": "厦门港务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.33, "pe_ttm": 78.3553, "pb": 1.5493, "dv_ttm": 0.8669, "total_mv": 1438973.2707, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.0, 2.9, 3.5, 2.8, 2.8, 3.2], "rev_series": [157.1, 235.8, 220.0, 229.3, 221.5, 221.3], "np_series": [1.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.3, 2.0, 2.1], "roe_series": [3.9, 6.6, 5.8, 4.8, 4.1, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 230.3, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 10.6, "gm_median": 2.9, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.3, "fix_assets": 139.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 2.04, "interest_debt": 63.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 47.4, "debt_mv": 44.4, "payout": 40.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": -5.8, "rev_yoy": -2.9, "np_yoy": -6.0, "np_vol": 33.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 31.1, "fwd_pe2": 26.3, "fwd_g1": 152.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["综合供应链业务", 28.0], ["港口贸易", 28.0], ["码头装卸与堆存", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.2, "ret_prev2_year": 2.1, "ret_ytd": -28.2, "ret_pivot": 75.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 11.6, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": 7.9, "mdd_250": -51.8, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 40, "hard": 79, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 78.4 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 10.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 2.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 78.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 12% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "厦门港务:PE 比行业中位高 61.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}