{"F": {"ts_code": "000902.SZ", "name": "新洋丰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.33, "pe_ttm": 11.0858, "pb": 1.4358, "dv_ttm": 2.0935, "total_mv": 1798034.1086, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 18.9, 14.5, 14.9, 15.6, 17.4], "rev_series": [100.7, 118.0, 159.6, 151.0, 155.6, 180.5], "np_series": [9.5, 12.1, 13.1, 12.1, 13.1, 16.1], "roe_series": [14.2, 16.3, 15.8, 13.3, 13.0, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 199.3, "np_ttm": 16.2, "ocf_ttm": 15.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.5, "fix_assets": 96.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 2.44, "interest_debt": 28.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 39.8, "debt_mv": 16.0, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 7.2, "rev_yoy": 20.0, "np_yoy": 1.0, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 9.0, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 10.6, "fwd_pe2": 9.2, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["常规复合肥", 38.0], ["新型复合肥", 29.0], ["磷肥", 22.0], ["精细化工", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.2, "ret_prev2_year": 18.6, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 34.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.7, "ret_60": 19.1, "ret_120": -20.8, "ret_250": -2.5, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 33.9, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 44, "hard": 71, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 2.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.1 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 19% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "新洋丰:PE 比行业中位低 9.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}