{"F": {"ts_code": "000901.SZ", "name": "航天科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990401", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.25, "pe_ttm": 696.0158, "pb": 2.6898, "dv_ttm": 0.0702, "total_mv": 1137436.995, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.2, 17.6, 18.6, 16.4, 17.7, 20.4], "rev_series": [53.5, 58.0, 57.4, 68.0, 69.0, 54.9], "np_series": [-6.6, 0.3, 0.3, -1.5, 0.1, 0.7], "roe_series": [-15.7, 0.7, 0.7, -3.4, 0.3, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.0, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 8.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.7, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 36.2, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": 34.1, "rev_yoy": -23.5, "np_yoy": -60.6, "np_vol": 367.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["汽车电子仪表", 27.0], ["汽车电子", 27.0], ["航天应用产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 159.7, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -49.9, "ret_pivot": 54.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -19.4, "ret_120": -39.4, "ret_250": -25.9, "mdd_250": -62.0, "vol_250": 59.3, "pos_52w": 40.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 21, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 696.0 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 696.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -19% / -39%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "航天科技:PE 比行业中位高 665.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.5个百分点。"]}}