{"F": {"ts_code": "000900.SZ", "name": "现代投资", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.66, "pe_ttm": 16.709, "pb": 0.5065, "dv_ttm": 4.3716, "total_mv": 555525.1944, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.0, 10.2, 11.9, 26.0, 24.0, 27.5], "rev_series": [140.3, 157.7, 158.7, 79.1, 76.3, 59.3], "np_series": [5.2, 6.2, 4.3, 5.4, 3.4, 4.0], "roe_series": [5.0, 5.8, 3.8, 4.5, 2.7, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.8, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 24.3, "fcf_ttm": 22.2, "fcf_yield": 40.0, "ocf_yield": 43.8, "gm_median": 24.0, "gm_std": 7.3, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 0.45, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 418.2, "debt_ebitda": 16.5, "debt_ratio": 75.9, "debt_mv": 752.8, "payout": 66.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -28.0, "np_cagr3": -2.2, "rev_yoy": 30.8, "np_yoy": -23.6, "np_vol": 27.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["大宗商品贸易", 18.0], ["大宗商品现货贸易", 18.0], ["湘衡高速公路通行费", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.1, "ret_prev2_year": 18.5, "ret_ytd": -6.9, "ret_pivot": 17.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -12.9, "ret_250": -13.5, "mdd_250": -19.2, "vol_250": 19.2, "pos_52w": 85.5}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 44, "hard": 2, "bondness": 85}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 27个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -28.0%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 67%、股息率 4.4%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 418 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 16.5 倍,资产负债率 76%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.4% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 16.7 倍 倒过来就是 6.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 40.0%(经营现金流/市值 43.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.0%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.7 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 1% / -13%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "现代投资:PE 比行业中位高 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.7个百分点。"]}}