{"F": {"ts_code": "000899.SZ", "name": "赣能股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.39, "pe_ttm": 11.0105, "pb": 1.5074, "dv_ttm": 6.0383, "total_mv": 916161.4542, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.8, -2.1, 6.3, 12.3, 15.7, 21.6], "rev_series": [26.8, 27.0, 41.4, 70.9, 69.2, 74.0], "np_series": [3.2, -2.5, 0.1, 4.9, 7.1, 10.1], "roe_series": [6.5, -5.1, 0.2, 10.0, 13.1, 16.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 84.5, "np_ttm": 8.2, "ocf_ttm": 25.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 28.2, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 8.1, "gm_stab": 0.34, "gm_chg_2022": -14.5, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 74.4, "fix_assets": 158.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 124.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 65.9, "debt_mv": 135.4, "payout": 45.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 21.3, "np_cagr3": 355.5, "rev_yoy": 34.3, "np_yoy": -41.0, "np_vol": 1800.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 7.6, "fwd_pe2": 7.2, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["火电", 93.0], ["光伏", 2.0], ["水电", 2.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.5, "ret_prev2_year": 16.8, "ret_ytd": 0.6, "ret_pivot": 42.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.0, "ret_60": -23.3, "ret_120": -29.6, "ret_250": 4.2, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 22, "hard": 100, "bondness": 61}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 45%、股息率 6.0%、营收 3 年复合 21.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 74%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 28.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.0 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -23% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "赣能股份:PE 比行业中位低 16.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}