{"F": {"ts_code": "000897.SZ", "name": "津滨发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.012, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 304047.1736, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.0, 54.5, 51.8, 43.9, 26.4, 37.7], "rev_series": [18.4, 22.5, 14.2, 30.6, 28.3, 4.1], "np_series": [2.0, 4.9, 2.6, 5.2, 5.1, -0.4], "roe_series": [15.2, 29.3, 12.9, 21.5, 17.2, -1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -6.5, "fcf_ttm": -6.5, "fcf_yield": -21.5, "ocf_yield": -21.4, "gm_median": 43.9, "gm_std": 10.1, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 32.8, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.01, "capex_dep": 3.28, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 42.3, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -33.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -55.7, "np_yoy": -411.1, "np_vol": 92.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["梅江H2项目", 26.0], ["物业管理", 17.0], ["滨堡公司项目", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.2, "ret_prev2_year": 10.2, "ret_ytd": -17.5, "ret_pivot": -5.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": -23.3, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 27.6, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 0, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 42%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -21.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -21.5%(经营现金流/市值 -21.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 32.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 3.28 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 2% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "津滨发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}