{"F": {"ts_code": "000895.SZ", "name": "双汇发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "肉制品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.17, "pe_ttm": 16.4616, "pb": 4.0068, "dv_ttm": 3.3099, "total_mv": 8374086.1204, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 15.4, 16.4, 17.1, 17.7, 18.1], "rev_series": [738.6, 666.8, 625.8, 598.9, 595.6, 592.7], "np_series": [62.6, 48.7, 56.2, 50.5, 49.9, 51.0], "roe_series": [31.1, 20.9, 25.2, 23.7, 23.8, 24.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 589.5, "np_ttm": 50.9, "ocf_ttm": 60.6, "fcf_ttm": 53.2, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 23.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.9, "fix_assets": 158.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.01, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 125.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 48.4, "debt_mv": 15.0, "payout": 98.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": -0.8, "np_vol": 12.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 15.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["生鲜猪产品", 18.0], ["生鲜冻品", 18.0], ["包装肉制品", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.0, "ret_prev2_year": 2.6, "ret_ytd": -5.8, "ret_pivot": 14.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": -0.0, "ret_120": -10.9, "ret_250": -0.8, "mdd_250": -21.1, "vol_250": 18.9, "pos_52w": 85.1}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 48, "hard": 62, "bondness": 79}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.5 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -21%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -0% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "双汇发展:PE 比行业中位低 13.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点。"]}}