{"F": {"ts_code": "000893.SZ", "name": "亚钾国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "钾肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.41, "pe_ttm": 20.6355, "pb": 3.0615, "dv_ttm": 0.2246, "total_mv": 4473331.8592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.8, 65.2, 72.7, 58.7, 49.5, 58.6], "rev_series": [3.6, 8.3, 34.7, 39.0, 35.5, 53.3], "np_series": [0.6, 9.0, 20.3, 12.4, 9.5, 16.7], "roe_series": [1.6, 21.5, 27.6, 11.6, 8.1, 13.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.2, "np_ttm": 21.7, "ocf_ttm": 33.0, "fcf_ttm": 15.1, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 58.7, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 28.9, "npm_median": 31.3, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.0, "fix_assets": 103.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.06, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 23.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 31.0, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 6.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 15.4, "np_cagr3": -6.2, "rev_yoy": 51.5, "np_yoy": 57.9, "np_vol": 550.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 14.2, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["氯化钾", 48.0], ["卤水", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 138.7, "ret_prev2_year": -23.3, "ret_ytd": 1.1, "ret_pivot": 221.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 7.3, "ret_120": -29.9, "ret_250": 50.4, "mdd_250": -43.2, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 71, "hard": 78, "bondness": 10}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 104 亿,占总资产 49%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 28.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.4%,股息率 0.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 76%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 49%)和定价权(毛利率 58.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 28.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.6 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 50%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 7% / -30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "亚钾国际:PE 比行业中位低 0.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 38.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点。"]}}