{"F": {"ts_code": "000889.SZ", "name": "中嘉博创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信工程及服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.99, "pe_ttm": 31.051, "pb": 18.7551, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 373580.1888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.2, 8.2, 9.7, 8.9, 8.8, 8.5], "rev_series": [25.7, 19.5, 15.2, 14.3, 14.6, 15.9], "np_series": [0.2, -20.0, -0.8, -1.3, -0.4, -0.3], "roe_series": [0.9, -149.6, -26.3, -63.1, -30.0, -30.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.5, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 8.8, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": -5.2, "roe_median": -30.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.3, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 10.1, "pb_calc": 18.76, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 10.9, "debt_ratio": 81.7, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 684.6, "np_vol": 4030.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["通讯网络维护及相关业务", 33.0], ["通信网络维护", 33.0], ["移动信息传输及相关业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.0, "ret_prev2_year": 16.1, "ret_ytd": 10.8, "ret_pivot": 138.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": 13.7, "ret_120": 15.3, "ret_250": -1.2, "mdd_250": -46.5, "vol_250": 63.5, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 42, "hard": 5, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 31 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 82%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.1 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 14% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "中嘉博创:PE 比行业中位低 50.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}