{"F": {"ts_code": "000887.SZ", "name": "中鼎股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.56, "pe_ttm": 18.6336, "pb": 1.8326, "dv_ttm": 0.9728, "total_mv": 2706702.8232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 22.5, 20.9, 22.0, 22.8, 23.2], "rev_series": [115.5, 125.8, 148.5, 172.4, 188.5, 198.0], "np_series": [4.9, 9.7, 9.6, 11.3, 12.5, 15.9], "roe_series": [5.5, 10.6, 9.4, 9.7, 10.0, 11.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 200.4, "np_ttm": 14.5, "ocf_ttm": 23.0, "fcf_ttm": 14.3, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 8.5, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 63.9, "goodwill_ratio": 7.5, "pb_calc": 1.83, "capex_dep": 1.06, "interest_debt": 66.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 45.2, "debt_mv": 24.5, "payout": 16.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.1, "np_cagr3": 18.1, "rev_yoy": 2.5, "np_yoy": -16.7, "np_vol": 33.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.0, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["冷却系统", 12.0], ["智能底盘-橡胶业务", 9.0], ["密封系统", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.6, "ret_prev2_year": 8.0, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 79.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": 7.4, "ret_250": -7.6, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 50.5, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 51, "hard": 38, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.6 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.6 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -1% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "中鼎股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}