{"F": {"ts_code": "000885.SZ", "name": "城发环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.16, "pe_ttm": 6.4115, "pb": 0.7963, "dv_ttm": 3.1743, "total_mv": 780767.2128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.1, 34.1, 39.5, 40.2, 40.8, 39.5], "rev_series": [33.9, 56.3, 63.6, 65.2, 66.1, 65.6], "np_series": [6.1, 9.6, 10.6, 10.8, 11.4, 12.4], "roe_series": [16.0, 18.7, 17.4, 15.3, 14.3, 13.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.2, "np_ttm": 12.2, "ocf_ttm": 20.0, "fcf_ttm": 11.8, "fcf_yield": 15.2, "ocf_yield": 25.6, "gm_median": 39.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 18.1, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 59.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 1.6, "interest_debt": 172.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 66.4, "debt_mv": 221.4, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": 5.4, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": -3.1, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 22.0, "earn_yield": 15.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 6.2, "fwd_pe2": 5.8, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["固体废弃物处置", 26.0], ["固体废弃物处理业务", 26.0], ["高速公路业务", 10.0], ["公路", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.8, "ret_prev2_year": 19.5, "ret_ytd": -8.8, "ret_pivot": 23.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": -18.0, "mdd_250": -22.7, "vol_250": 24.9, "pos_52w": 78.2}, "S": {"duration": 15, "pricing": 61, "hard": 30, "bondness": 60}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 6.4 倍、股息率 3.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.5%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.5%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.2%(经营现金流/市值 25.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.60 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 6.4 倍 粗算,约 22%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -4% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "城发环境:PE 比行业中位低 19.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点。"]}}