{"F": {"ts_code": "000878.SZ", "name": "云南铜业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.35, "pe_ttm": 24.3424, "pb": 2.2069, "dv_ttm": 1.3256, "total_mv": 4207694.24, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.0, 4.1, 4.8, 4.1, 2.8, 3.2], "rev_series": [882.4, 1270.6, 1349.2, 1469.8, 1780.1, 1795.4], "np_series": [3.8, 6.5, 18.1, 15.8, 12.6, 13.0], "roe_series": [4.6, 7.4, 16.1, 11.6, 8.8, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2021.8, "np_ttm": 18.8, "ocf_ttm": -31.2, "fcf_ttm": -52.8, "fcf_yield": -12.6, "ocf_yield": -7.4, "gm_median": 4.1, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 24.7, "fix_assets": 164.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 301.4, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 62.8, "debt_mv": 71.6, "payout": 39.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.0, "np_cagr3": -10.4, "rev_yoy": 32.8, "np_yoy": 29.1, "np_vol": 75.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 13.6, "fwd_pe2": 11.9, "fwd_g1": 79.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["阴极铜", 35.0], ["贵金属", 11.0], ["其他产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.0, "ret_prev2_year": 16.2, "ret_ytd": -14.4, "ret_pivot": 59.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": 7.9, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": 19.9, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 54.5, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 70, "hard": 40, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.3 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 4.1%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 4.1%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.6%(经营现金流/市值 -7.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.3 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 8% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "云南铜业:PE 比行业中位高 3.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}