{"F": {"ts_code": "000877.SZ", "name": "天山股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19990107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.73, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3679, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2652213.4041, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.3, 24.9, 16.1, 16.2, 16.7, 17.9], "rev_series": [86.9, 1699.8, 1325.8, 1073.8, 870.0, 745.0], "np_series": [15.2, 125.3, 45.4, 19.7, -6.0, -72.9], "roe_series": [15.0, 28.9, 5.8, 2.4, -0.9, -9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 686.8, "np_ttm": -95.6, "ocf_ttm": 93.9, "fcf_ttm": 55.2, "fcf_yield": 20.8, "ocf_yield": 35.4, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -21.2, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.5, "fix_assets": 1246.6, "goodwill_ratio": 8.7, "pb_calc": 0.37, "capex_dep": 0.48, "interest_debt": 1261.7, "debt_ebitda": 12.7, "debt_ratio": 68.5, "debt_mv": 475.7, "payout": 50.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -17.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.2, "np_yoy": -245.5, "np_vol": 343.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 36.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["水泥熟料", 22.0], ["水泥及熟料", 22.0], ["混凝土", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": -29.9, "ret_pivot": -12.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": -7.2, "ret_120": -30.8, "ret_250": -48.5, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 29.8, "pos_52w": 53.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 71, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 12.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 20.8%(经营现金流/市值 35.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.48 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "天山股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.7个百分点。"]}}