{"F": {"ts_code": "000869.SZ", "name": "张裕A", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "其他酒类", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.31, "pe_ttm": 408.989, "pb": 1.0431, "dv_ttm": 1.5328, "total_mv": 1071958.6488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.7, 58.3, 57.1, 59.2, 57.5, 55.5], "rev_series": [34.0, 39.5, 39.2, 43.8, 32.8, 29.9], "np_series": [4.7, 5.0, 4.3, 5.3, 3.1, 0.7], "roe_series": [4.6, 4.8, 4.1, 5.0, 2.8, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.9, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 57.5, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.7, "fix_assets": 51.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 0.07, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 12.2, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 88.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": -45.0, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": -24.3, "np_vol": 35.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["葡萄酒", 66.0], ["白兰地", 28.0], ["旅游业务", 4.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.8, "ret_prev2_year": -1.9, "ret_ytd": -19.8, "ret_pivot": -17.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.0, "ret_60": -4.2, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -27.4, "mdd_250": -30.7, "vol_250": 19.8, "pos_52w": 72.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 72, "hard": 70, "bondness": 63}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 52 亿,占总资产 44%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 57.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.8%,股息率 1.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 99%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 44%)和定价权(毛利率 57.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 409.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -4% / -17%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "张裕A:PE 比行业中位高 386.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.1个百分点。"]}}