{"F": {"ts_code": "000860.SZ", "name": "顺鑫农业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.03, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2049, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 818169.001, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 27.9, 31.7, 31.8, 36.0, 32.3], "rev_series": [155.1, 148.7, 116.8, 105.9, 91.3, 72.2], "np_series": [4.2, 1.0, -6.7, -3.0, 2.3, -1.5], "roe_series": [5.5, 1.3, -9.1, -4.3, 3.4, -2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.4, "np_ttm": -2.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": -2.0, "roe_median": -2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 27.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 0.23, "interest_debt": 47.1, "debt_ebitda": 39.2, "debt_ratio": 45.8, "debt_mv": 57.6, "payout": 48.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -14.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.2, "np_yoy": -76.7, "np_vol": 324.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 367.7, "fwd_pe2": 129.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 183.0, "peg": 2.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["白酒", 70.0], ["猪肉", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -24.2, "ret_prev2_year": -8.6, "ret_ytd": -24.7, "ret_pivot": -23.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": -35.1, "mdd_250": -43.0, "vol_250": 26.2, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 35, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 47 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.23 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 7% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "顺鑫农业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 42.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}